Estimating workload

[AGrzes]

I wanted to ask You how do you approach estimating the quantity of work on projects defined in your systems?
I mean it is great to caputure process and define everything that we want to be done but knowledge when for example half of project due dates are to be missed because of general amount of work on the plate expected unplanned work amount and some have to be renegotiated or put on hold at all.

I do not see much support in this area from GTD but instead feel that I must rely on gut feeling or outside experience.

 

[Oogiem]

Experience and then multiply it by 2. ;-)

seriously, that is almost impossible until you have experience.s For example, With my husband we can weigh and vaccinate about 50 sheep an hour. Someone who hasn't done it before will take 2-3 times as long. It takes longer to vaccinate lambs than it does to do yearlings or adults and a lot longer to do adult rams. You only learn that by doing it.

 

[Folke]

I do not even try to estimate time. It does not work for me. I go very much by gut-felt priority for areas and projects, and for individual critical tasks I even mark them with a flag.

 

[mcogilvie]

I wanted to ask You how do you approach estimating the quantity of work on projects defined in your systems? I mean it is great to caputure process and define everything that we want to be done but knowledge when for example half of project due dates are to be missed because of general amount of work on the plate expected unplanned work amount and some have to be renegotiated or put on hold at all. I do not see much support in this area from GTD but instead feel that I must rely on gut feeling or outside experience.

If you are in a situation where there are a lot of artificial due dates AND there is stigma attached to missing due dates, then you should pad them. A factor of three is normal, so you might want to multiply your estimate by a factro of 6 or so. The reason GTD doesn't have much to say about time estimates is that good estimates are hard for most people, and artificial due dates are a hindrance.

 

[bcmyers2112]

I do not see much support in this area from GTD but instead feel that I must rely on gut feeling or outside experience.

Intuition and experience are all anyone has to rely on. Every job and every organization is different so there are no useful "one size fits all" guides.

 

[TesTeq]

Intuition and experience?...

"Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment." - Manager Tools

 

[Romain]

I agree it's not always possible to do it, but somehow we need to have an idea of the amount of time required (if only to see how that would fit with others, since we live in a world where we're not alone ;-) ). I personally estimate every task I can when I define it. Two options :
- I know the task so well it's easy to estimate
- I apply a 3 factor on my estimate when I don't know the task.

I found this to be useful, especially in all project management stuff, because :
- it gives me a critical path (often required),
- and mostly because it's easier for me to apply the second criterion of an action in GTD: time.

Then, when I'm in the right context, my second filter is time available at that moment (and then the level of energy required). Having an estimate time of completion (time needed for the task) facilitates things when I have to filter my actions through my time available.